Tesla Q3 Expectations

Visible spike in Inventory cars sold in Q3(Courtesy of EV-CPO.com)

We are expecting 27,500 deliveries in Q3 with an average ASP of $104,000 due to deliveries of the P100D and more Model X's. Service and other revenue should be roughly Overall Revenue should range between: 100-120m due to an increase in CPO sales (expecting 600-700 in Q3) and increased sales within Tesla Energy. Automotive gross margin should decline to roughly 22.5% on a GAAP basis due to an increase of discounts on inventory cars (roughly 1300 inventory cars sold, 2X Q2). Service and other revenue is expected to carry a margin around 5-8% due an increase in CPO vehicle sales and an increased Tesla Energy income.


Total Expected Revenue: $2.97bn (Non-GAAP)

Automotive Profit: $643,500,000

Service and Other Profit: $7,150,000

Expected Operating profit: $650,650,000

Expected Expenses: $590,000,000

Interest Expense: $45,000,000

Overall Profit: $15,650,000

GAAP EPS Estimate: ~$.11



*CPO and inventory car data is drawn from ev-cpo.com which does real time tracking on Tesla CPO and inventory sales and pricing.




Christian PrenzlerComment